Monday, January 9, 2012

Entering a "Steered Market"

I was reading recently about the January effect about how if the market does well in January then it will tend to do well all year. I couldn't help but think how in this age of charting and traditional rules of thumb that so much of the market is in continuous reaction mode.

The market is constantly reacting to events in a way that makes Asian Opera seem disorganized. If a certain group of folks had a large wad of cash and knew how to leverage it they could Steer the rest of the market into a buying frenzy.

Crazy? No more crazy than the fact that from 2000 - 2008 the whole economy hung like a loose tooth ready for one good shake, and that the DNC gave it that good shake in time for the 2008 election... and not before. Or if you prefer members of the DNC made sure that the last of a series of market bubbles popped in time to swing the 2008 election.

The bubble existed; all that was needed was a needle and the knowledge of how to apply it. Everyone who was familiar with our banking system knew that the mortgages were wildly out of control based on wildly overpriced real-estate with crazy LTV (Loan to value) ratios. I personally was offered a piece of paper on a house in Californication which would put me in 3rd place, "but hey, how else you going to get that kinda return?"

So the point is that with all the money at their disposal we can bet that the folks who were able to run us into a bear market in 2008 will be able to steer us into a bull market in 2012. That wouldn't make it a real Bull market, just a Steer market.

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